Economic and financial market outlook

Uncertain times in the US and global economy. Although the financial market's performance is wanting, suggesting a weak economy, a double dip isn't entirely ruled out either. The pessimism in the market is probably overdone too.

Here is an excerpt from one of my favorite source of market commentary:

"That is only natural given the 17% slide that was witnessed between the high on April 26 and the low on July 1 and the macro factors -- Europe's sovereign debt problems, China's efforts to slow its growth, ongoing weakness in the U.S. labor market -- that precipitated that slide.

We, too, have had a more cautious-sounding tone in our market commentary, which is why we would like to take some time this week to discuss the alternative risk of a major move to the upside."

To read the full article:
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/OurView/TheBigPicture.htm

S&P: 'limited' risk for banks for their home loans

"Singapore households have strong balance sheets, underpinned by a high savings rate, low debt, and low unemployment," a report by Standard & Poor's (S&P) said.

An unabated rise in price is also unlikely, so the most likely scenario is the gradual grind upwards. Mid-end properties have already reached the previous peak, while high-end ones have yet to do so.

But recent actions suggests that high-end & luxury segment is starting to stir. Stay tune for new launches.

You might also like to check out:
1) Orchard View: http://orchardview.wordpress.com

2) The Lumos: Coming soon, drop me an email to be added to my mailing list

3) Grange Infinite: website coming soon, viewing strictly by appointment

4) Leonie Parc View: website coming soon, viewing strictly by appointment

Fed Officials Saw No Need for More Stimulus in June

Part of the excerpt from a July 14 (Bloomberg) article -- Federal Reserve officials saw no need to boost stimulus to the economy while trimming their forecasts for growth and noting that risks to the recovery had increased, minutes of their June meeting showed.

"The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside," minutes released today in Washington said. "The changes to the outlook were viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place."

Slowing inflation, constrained household spending and contracting credit prompted Fed policy makers last month to restate a pledge to keep the benchmark lending rate at around zero for "an extended period," the Fed's statement showed.

The minutes indicated that U.S. central bankers were concerned about lingering high unemployment and risks that inflation could decelerate further. If the outlook worsened, the Federal Open Market Committee would need to consider whether additional stimulus was appropriate, the minutes said.

> reading between the lines, it gives credence that the interest rates will remain low for quite a while, which in turn will also mean that interest rates in Singapore will also remain at a historical low. In a seperate article, experts note that since Singapore conducts monetary policy by adjusting its exchage rates, therefore its likely the Sing-Dollar will appreciate in the coming quarters. This translates to a 'perfect-conditions' for assest prices to appreciate further as liquidy is good and money is cheap with foreign funds inflow expected to increase too.

Singapore’s GDP Expands at Record Pace in Resilience to Europe

Excerpt from July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's economy expanded at a 26 percent annual pace in the second quarter after a record surge the previous three months, spurring the nation's currency and adding to evidence of Asia's resilience to the European crisis.

Singapore's growth for the first quarter was revised to 45.9 percent, the fastest since records began in 1975, the trade ministry said today. Gross domestic product will rise between 13 percent and 15 percent in 2010, compared with an earlier forecast of as much as 9 percent, the ministry said.

A year after Singapore exited its worst recession since independence in 1965, tourists are arriving in record numbers, companies have increased hiring and vessels are leaving the city's ports carrying more cargo. The island's strengthening economy has added to an Asian rebound that prompted central banks to raise interest rates in recent weeks, even amid concern that Europe's fiscal woes will slow the global recovery.

"Singapore will be among the fastest-growing countries not just in Asia, but the world, this year," said Song Seng-Wun, an economist at CIMB Research Pte in Singapore. "Price pressures are already evident and we expect the central bank to be watching if inflation expectations are raised because of these numbers."

Singapore's growth has already prompted the central bank to allow the currency to strengthen to temper inflationary pressures. The Singapore dollar is used instead of interest rates to conduct monetary policy.


> That said, with our interest rates taking a cue from the US, it should remain low for 'an extended period' which should in turn spur more borrowings and more foreign funds inflow. That in turn will support asset prices like equities & real estate.

> My train of thoughts might be simple, if you have differing thoughts, I welcome you to leave some comments, cheers!